Guinness Posted July 23, 2008 Report Share Posted July 23, 2008 http://www.usnews.com/articles/news/world/...downsizing.html This will negatively impact the clone trade shortly- it already seems as though there is a noticeable production and development 'slow-down' that many had attributed to the earthquakes, then the Typhoon, then the Olympics- The article discusses the economic realities. Perhaps an opportunity for Japanese firms to regain some glory and market-share, but the more likely result will be an uptick in Taiwan production, Korean production and perhaps new manufacturing areas, Philippines? Vietnam? Or maybe, maybe...the 'glory days' of Airsoft are in fact behind us......... Slainte! Link to post Share on other sites
seaweasel Posted July 23, 2008 Report Share Posted July 23, 2008 From what TFA says, I don't think this will be the end of Chinese Airsoft by any means. It looks like the government is trying to cut down on cheap, high volume ###### in order to encourage higher value exports. Now I know that a Chinese AEG isn't exactly bleeding edge technology but the likes of JG and Boyi are manufacturing export goods of at least decent quality to a sizable niche market. Granted prices might go up, however they're already pretty cheap, and there might be positive side-effects such as more innovation instead of just straight cloning, and fewer cheap springers. Link to post Share on other sites
Dock trinE Posted July 23, 2008 Report Share Posted July 23, 2008 Umm... the chinese government isnt trying to produce higher quality AEGs for export. Airsoft is completely illegal in the mainland. The chinese want to improve their image for the olympics and the manufacture of illegal goods is not exactly benefiting their image. But not to worry. Just think, how many years have the RIAA, MPAA, etc. been cracking down on pirating? And still, when I visited china just last week when I was in china there were street vendors selling bootleg dvds everywhere. Also, the strengthening of security is mostly in beijing where the actual olympics are. Other places are not as tight. When I was in Beijing there was no sign of airsoft as the police are pretty much everywhere. But when I went to shanghai, I saw guns in shops and people offered to sell me bb guns. Link to post Share on other sites
Guinness Posted July 23, 2008 Author Report Share Posted July 23, 2008 While I certainly hope your right, my innate and government trained cynicism tells me otherwise- Those factories you mention boomed while Chinese govt was still (and they still are) trying to chart a course from Communist 'Central Planning' economic practice to more open market-society freedoms- But with quality improvements, safety concerns and wage and cost increases already on the table, the proverbial 'writing is on the wall' I'm afraid. Consider this: A cursory glance at the Chinese experiment in Capitalism...wait, it was never that was it- Let's just call it 'free-market reforms' shows the speed and agility that these factories and businesses sprung up since the 90's- so everything has kind of been 'compressed' in time as compared to the traditional models from the west- especially when compared to the Japanese model or even the Korean model- i.e. Japans economy didn't start taking off until the late 60's when the US and the World became more and more dependent on their consumer products- that was still some 25+ years after the US and others went in, rebuilt what had been destroyed and gave them business and manufacturing training (the 'Deming' method of quality). And S. Korea- Hyundai, Samsung, etc- all that happened well after the end of the Korean conflict, similarly to the Japanese model, but still took longer. What we are seeing is a natural business cycle, only as rapid in its decline as it was in it inception. Link to post Share on other sites
Walton_County_Firefighter Posted July 23, 2008 Report Share Posted July 23, 2008 Damn Guinness you scarry! Nah I'm kidding, I think this will not really have an effect on clone availability. Link to post Share on other sites
Skarclaw Posted July 23, 2008 Report Share Posted July 23, 2008 To be honest I think the glory days of anything which isn't food and water are over - hell, even people don't even value houses as much anymore! Link to post Share on other sites
transist Posted July 23, 2008 Report Share Posted July 23, 2008 Just more FUD in my opinion. People have been forecasting the "death" of clones for a while now. Guess what? Nothing has happened. Link to post Share on other sites
Utty Posted July 23, 2008 Report Share Posted July 23, 2008 This will negatively impact the clone trade shortly- it already seems as though there is a noticeable production and development 'slow-down' that many had attributed to the earthquakes, then the Typhoon, then the Olympics- The article discusses the economic realities. Will it, now? Will, or may? No need to make such a bold statement over some article. The market changes all the time. Personally I think clones are very profitable for the manufacturers, because the products are fairly low-tech and easy to make, and yet fetch a good price. Perhaps an opportunity for Japanese firms to regain some glory and market-share, but the more likely result will be an uptick in Taiwan production, Korean production and perhaps new manufacturing areas, Philippines? Vietnam? A return to the glory days of japanese airsoft? Ich don't think so. Link to post Share on other sites
Pablo Posted July 23, 2008 Report Share Posted July 23, 2008 Not the first time this has been mentioned here, and doubtless not the last. Link to post Share on other sites
Royal-Air-Force Posted July 23, 2008 Report Share Posted July 23, 2008 Mandatory: OH NOES CHINESE CLONES AM CLOSINGZZ !!1!!one!!!sh!ft!!!!! :P Seeing how many times this type of thread has happend in the last few months im not exactly going to start panic buying JUST now. Link to post Share on other sites
Involved6 Posted July 23, 2008 Report Share Posted July 23, 2008 Seeing how many times this type of thread has happend in the last few months im not exactly going to start panic buying JUST now. I think mindless newb panic and the words and educated concerns of Guinness are a little different. Link to post Share on other sites
reaper16 Posted July 23, 2008 Report Share Posted July 23, 2008 Isnt CA based in china? Link to post Share on other sites
Utty Posted July 23, 2008 Report Share Posted July 23, 2008 Newb or educated, panic is panic. The high-end ACM airsoft market is in its infancy, built on uncertain legal grounds, it can hardly surprise anyone that things may change sooner or later. But given the high demand for these products, I don't think the supply will run out anytime soon. In fact, the article mentions the chinese's desire for marketing their own quality brands, instead of just being faceless no-name OEM manufacturers for western name brands. Indeed, chinese brands such as Dboys, Cyma and JG have earned recognition for making quality products (by ACM standards), and I'm sure they're raking in the dough. I think we will see even higher quality ACM airsoft products in the future. Isnt CA based in china? HK Link to post Share on other sites
crunkathon2k Posted July 23, 2008 Report Share Posted July 23, 2008 Aren't most of these companies based in HK? In that case, many mainland laws don't apply. A lot of the factories are also in the Guandong province, which is very closely associated with HK. Link to post Share on other sites
Fin Posted July 23, 2008 Report Share Posted July 23, 2008 Yep, not the first time i've read this story/ close variation of it on this forum Still cant wait to read it next month Link to post Share on other sites
Cerigo Posted July 23, 2008 Report Share Posted July 23, 2008 You never this might achuly be the time it happens? Link to post Share on other sites
srpg Posted July 24, 2008 Report Share Posted July 24, 2008 the sky is falling......ha ha ha Link to post Share on other sites
Guinness Posted July 24, 2008 Author Report Share Posted July 24, 2008 Firstly dear readers, The only use of the word "Panic" has come from the nay-sayers and other 'experts' reading this thread...... I intended no such panic or call-to-arms (bad pun intended ), simply to pass along information Information you see, always has value. Consider this: "The Chinese government is actively trying to phase out some of the lowest-wage assembly work, such as making clothing and cheap toys, to build up more complex and more valuable manufacturing operations, including cars and high-tech equipment. To that end, the government last year eliminated tax subsidies on some 2,000 products. A new labor law gives sharper teeth to existing minimum wage laws and other basic labor regulations. And high inflation has prompted curbs on bank lending, which has combined with weak export markets to push the country's growth rate lower for four straight quarters." These you see, are what they call 'facts'- I know, they are a rare commodity in the world today- most often people here and in the larger world argue and discuss and get all ramped up about opinion, heresay, and speculation- In this case, we have things that are verifiable- in other words, what is said in this article, by a reputable information source BTW (US News and World Report) and not some trade-rag with an agenda or an axe to grind- are all things that can be separately verified- It is true that the things highlighted and underlined have happened in China, so using our logic gene for just a second, isn't it a reasonable conclusion to draw that these factors would indeed have an impact on the Airsoft market? My point is this: And I will make it again as plain and simple as I can- China's entry into the world consumer goods markets has been much faster than anything the world has seen before- It didn't happen this way for the US, or Japan, or Korea- hell it didn't even happen at this speed for places like Guatemala or other Central American countries when they made all the clothes we wear- Which BTW, if anyone is keeping score, are made more and more in Vietnam...Sri Lanka, etc. And before our panel of distinguished experts jumps on this, Yes, of course China has been making export goods for years- however it was not until the 90's when that good 'ol boy' from Arkansas, Sam Walton kicked the Wal-Mart machine into high gear that it REALLY took off for China- So we really have them to thank for our Airsoft toys if you think about it- Now we see the Chinese bureaucracy already making changes to their economic model- which that fact alone, getting the PRC to act to manage and tweak the market this fast for the benefit of its people (higher wages, better working conditions, etc) is simply astonishing in itself, especially in this 'condensed' time frame is unheard of. China's mission is to make way for more export industry, makes sense- But they want to build up that infrastructure to produce things that will have more market share, more acceptance, and therefore, return more profit, sustained growth, and economic stability- These things are Automobiles, and high-tech products like personal electronics, microwaves, medical equipment, etc. -Not Airsoft....sorry And it doesn't take an MBA to figure it out or see the signs- its plain 'ol Market-Economy, Profit and Loss, Law of Supply and Demand- All I'm saying is, its happening at an accelerated rate here- that's all. Don't believe it if you don't want too- I have no personal tie to it, other than trying to point out 'trends'. I'm not saying "The sky is falling" either- Airsoft products will still be available obviously and its ludicrous to suggest otherwise- I am however saying that all that R&D and cool new guns and products that we were getting used to seeing every 3-to-6 months or so.........that's likely going to change- but hide and wait- then tell me and the others that simply read the news and can use that logic gene to see whats coming that we are all crazy..... BTW, thank you Involved6! I've never been accused of being 'edu-ma-cated' ! Slainte! Link to post Share on other sites
Utty Posted July 24, 2008 Report Share Posted July 24, 2008 Get Your Chinese Clones While You Still Can...... and This will negatively impact the clone trade shortly sounded a lot like THE END IS NIGH, though. You must admit it was a bit of an aggressive tabloid-like headline for what boils down to 'China is developing'. Interesting article, sure, but hardly necessitates building a bomb shelter full of newly purchased RK01 full steel vers. Maybe an acceptable excuse to do so, though.. Link to post Share on other sites
Guinness Posted July 24, 2008 Author Report Share Posted July 24, 2008 and sounded a lot like THE END IS NIGH, though. You must admit it was a bit of an aggressive tabloid-like headline for what boils down to 'China is developing'. Interesting article, sure, but hardly necessitates building a bomb shelter full of newly purchased RK01 full steel vers. Maybe an acceptable excuse to do so, though.. Fair enough- I'll give you the headline-style lede- However to be fair, once read and followed up by reading the linked story, there was no panic or extreme opinion presented- simply facts. Therefore it is amusing and quite telling that the easily excitable among us were oh so quick to say they 'had heard it all before' or something to that effect, thereby seeming fear-driven in their own dismissals. The so-called clone market sure has become a 'sacred cow' for many of us here hasn't it? Wonder why folks get so ramped up about that? "The only thing constant is change" -Heraclitus Link to post Share on other sites
transist Posted July 24, 2008 Report Share Posted July 24, 2008 Because they are awesome. Link to post Share on other sites
zentaurus Posted July 24, 2008 Report Share Posted July 24, 2008 good read . . . . and good interp too. but the bottom line is they will be needing $ to fuel the intended pace of development. so anything that will add to the kitty will be welcome, including airsoft toys. a niche where, btw, JG and Boyi are now leading with their metal versions and FET** offered free. so, yes, the low enders might fall of the vine but those who can keep pace may continue to do business with the rest of the world outside the middle kingdom methinks . . . . ** did anybody notice the 1-in-7 twist of the JGM4? a TK clone or refinement? Link to post Share on other sites
Utty Posted July 24, 2008 Report Share Posted July 24, 2008 ** did anybody notice the 1-in-7 twist of the JGM4? a TK clone or refinement? I didn't until now. Wow. Mosfet too. Link to post Share on other sites
Abelius Posted July 24, 2008 Report Share Posted July 24, 2008 There's no twist in the JG. They just thought that putting the real rifling to the box would be cool. Link to post Share on other sites
Utty Posted July 24, 2008 Report Share Posted July 24, 2008 There's no twist in the JG. They just thought that putting the real rifling to the box would be cool. What?? Those c***s. Well, not that a twist barrel would necessarily be a benefit anyway. Link to post Share on other sites
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